Glossary
Analytics & Forecasting

Churn Probability

By: Alec Hollingsworth
Updated:  
July 16, 2025

Definition:

Churn probability is the likelihood that a supporter will stop engaging with or donating to a nonprofit within a specific period.
Churn Probability refers to the likelihood that a donor, member, or supporter will stop engaging with or contributing to a nonprofit organization within a given timeframe. Calculating churn probability involves analyzing patterns in supporter behavior, such as decreased donation frequency, reduced event participation, or disengagement from communications. Nonprofits use this metric to identify at-risk individuals and take proactive measures to re-engage them. By understanding churn probability, organizations can allocate their resources more effectively, tailor communications, and prioritize retention strategies, ultimately fostering stronger, longer-lasting relationships with their supporters.

Key Takeaways

  • Churn probability predicts supporter loss risk.
  • Helps nonprofits focus on retention strategies.
  • Data-driven insights enable proactive engagement.

Why It Matters

It helps nonprofits predict and reduce supporter loss, improving retention and fundraising outcomes.

Real World Example

A nonprofit observes that a group of monthly donors has not opened recent campaign emails and missed their last scheduled donation. Using a churn probability model, the organization identifies these donors as high-risk for leaving. The development team sends a personalized email expressing appreciation, shares recent success stories, and offers options to adjust giving frequency. Several donors respond positively, reaffirming their commitment or adjusting their donation schedules. By acting on churn probability insights, the nonprofit retains valuable supporters who might otherwise have lapsed.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is churn probability?

Churn probability measures the likelihood that a supporter will stop engaging with a nonprofit during a certain timeframe.

Why is churn probability important for nonprofits?

It enables nonprofits to identify at-risk supporters and implement strategies to retain them, improving long-term fundraising success.

How does Keela help manage churn probability?

Keela uses engagement analytics to flag high-risk supporters, allowing nonprofits to automate personalized retention campaigns.

What factors influence churn probability?

Factors include donation frequency, event participation, and responsiveness to communications.

Can churn probability be reduced?

Yes, with timely engagement and tailored communications, nonprofits can lower churn probability and retain more supporters.

Related Terms

Accessibility Compliance
Automation Trigger in a Nonprofit CRM
Average Gift Size
Board Member Profile
Bounce Rate
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